Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs McLeod 47.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 69.2%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 53.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 61.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Carlsson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carlsson
McLeod
Last 8: Carlsson 2-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Carlsson
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Carlsson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
49.0% (827)
-4.0%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
44.0% (91)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
43.0% (272)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Carlsson
McLeod
Home
42.5% (435)
48.5% (619)
Away
45.5% (429)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Carlsson
McLeod
P1
45.3%
52.7%
P2
38.7%
43.9%
P3
48.5%
45.8%
OT
41.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
38.4%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |