Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs McLeod 49.5% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 82.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 90.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 83.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Carlsson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
16
(21 meetings)
5
16
Carlsson
McLeod
Last 10: Carlsson 2-8 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Carlsson
McLeod
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
5
Carlsson
McLeod
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
8
Carlsson
McLeod
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
50.4% (3,376)
-9.5%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
50.7% (296)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
44.1% (644)
-9.4%
On even strength, McLeod has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Carlsson shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
Home / Away
Carlsson
McLeod
Home
42.2% (1,051)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Carlsson
McLeod
P1
43.3%
50.8%
P2
36.2%
48.0%
P3
43.3%
50.0%
OT
40.7%
37.1%
Final 5 min
39.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:15 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |