Leo Carlsson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (-2.4%)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 52.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 54.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 52.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
46.0% (250)
-1.0%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
70.6% (17)
-24.2%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
31.8% (22)
+1.1%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
42.5% (435)
50.3% (175)
Away
45.5% (429)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
45.3%
48.5%
P2
38.7%
45.9%
P3
48.5%
46.5%
OT
41.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%