Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Couturier 53.6% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 77.3%
Defensive zone
Couturier 50.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 66.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Carlsson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carlsson
Couturier
Last 6: Carlsson 2-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
Carlsson
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Carlsson
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
53.9% (792)
-8.9%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
62.9% (70)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
51.3% (234)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Couturier
Home
42.5% (435)
51.4% (541)
Away
45.5% (429)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Carlsson
Couturier
P1
45.3%
56.0%
P2
38.7%
52.6%
P3
48.5%
54.3%
OT
41.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
38.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |