Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.5% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.4% vs Couturier 52.6% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 68.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 65.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 73.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Carlsson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Carlsson
Couturier
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
3
5
Carlsson
Couturier
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
2
Carlsson
Couturier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Carlsson
Couturier
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (1,716)
52.4% (10,929)
-11.3%
Power Play
42.8% (152)
59.9% (1,276)
-17.1%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (116)
48.7% (1,777)
-13.4%
On power play, Couturier has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Carlsson is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,391).
Carlsson shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,821).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Couturier
Home
42.9% (956)
53.4% (7,054)
Away
39.1% (1,028)
51.8% (6,935)
By Period
Carlsson
Couturier
P1
44.2%
52.5%
P2
35.8%
52.5%
P3
43.5%
53.0%
OT
41.7%
49.6%
Final 5 min
39.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
40.9%
Couturier
46.0%▼
47.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |