Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Wright 41.4% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 71.1%
Defensive zone
Wright 60.1%
Neutral zone
Wright 59.3%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Carlsson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Carlsson
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Carlsson
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
39.7% (461)
+5.3%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
41.0% (61)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
0.0% (1)
+32.9%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Wright
Home
42.5% (435)
39.5% (286)
Away
45.5% (429)
40.1% (237)
By Period
Carlsson
Wright
P1
45.3%
40.2%
P2
38.7%
36.7%
P3
48.5%
42.9%
OT
41.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Shane Wright |