Scouting Report
Shane Wright holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Wright 43.3% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Wright 68.8%
Defensive zone
Wright 57.9%
Neutral zone
Wright 55.6%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Carlsson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Carlsson
Wright
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
1
Carlsson
Wright
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
42.7% (1,326)
-1.8%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
45.1% (133)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
33.3% (6)
+1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,080).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Wright
Home
42.2% (1,051)
44.2% (746)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
41.4% (719)
By Period
Carlsson
Wright
P1
43.3%
44.5%
P2
36.2%
40.5%
P3
43.3%
44.0%
OT
40.7%
20.0%
Final 5 min
39.8%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 08:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |