Scouting Report
Luke Kunin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Kunin wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kunin 46.1% vs Kelly 41.7% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kunin 78.5%
Defensive zone
Kunin 56.2%
Neutral zone
Kunin 64.6%
Result
Luke Kunin favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Kunin
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Kunin
Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kunin
1
0
Kunin
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kunin
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kunin
1
0
Kunin
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kunin
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,667)
42.0% (758)
+5.0%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
0.0% (3)
+46.0%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (335)
36.8% (174)
+3.5%
On power play, Kunin has a +46.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kunin is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,537).
Kunin shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Kunin
Kelly
Home
45.4% (1,075)
42.4% (476)
Away
46.4% (1,066)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Kunin
Kelly
P1
47.7%
42.3%
P2
45.7%
44.7%
P3
44.1%
35.6%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kunin
44.0%▼
49.5%
45.9%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Luke Kunin |