Macklin Celebrini vs Mathew Barzal
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.4% vs Barzal 41.5% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 86.8%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 75.3%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 80.7%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Celebrini
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Celebrini
Barzal
Last 5: Celebrini 4-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
3
0
Celebrini
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Celebrini
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (979)
40.4% (465)
+7.1%
Power Play
53.6% (110)
34.2% (38)
+19.4%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
28.6% (7)
+27.4%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Celebrini is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Celebrini shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Barzal
Home
47.8% (523)
38.2% (246)
Away
48.7% (591)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Celebrini
Barzal
P1
47.4%
46.3%
P2
46.6%
35.7%
P3
50.8%
38.1%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
38.0%▼
42.0%
48.3%
Barzal
38.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |