Macklin Celebrini vs Mathew Barzal
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.7% vs Barzal 41.9% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 85.4%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 74.9%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 80.3%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Celebrini
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Celebrini
Barzal
Last 5: Celebrini 4-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
3
0
Celebrini
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Celebrini
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (993)
40.9% (469)
+6.9%
Power Play
54.1% (111)
34.2% (38)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
28.6% (7)
+27.4%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Celebrini is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Celebrini shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Barzal
Home
48.5% (538)
39.2% (250)
Away
48.7% (591)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Celebrini
Barzal
P1
48.1%
46.3%
P2
46.8%
36.7%
P3
51.0%
38.5%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |