Scouting Report
Marco Kasper holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kasper on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kasper wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.9% vs Kelly 41.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kasper 93.8%
Defensive zone
Kasper 71.5%
Neutral zone
Kasper 84.6%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Kasper
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Kasper
Kelly
Last 7: Kasper 7-0 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
3
0
Kasper
Kelly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kasper
4
0
Kasper
Kelly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (960)
42.0% (758)
+5.2%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
0.0% (3)
+46.9%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
36.8% (174)
-6.2%
On power play, Kasper has a +46.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kasper is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Kasper shoots left. Kelly is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (630).
Home / Away
Kasper
Kelly
Home
49.4% (474)
42.4% (476)
Away
44.2% (554)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Kasper
Kelly
P1
48.0%
42.3%
P2
51.0%
44.7%
P3
40.2%
35.6%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.7%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.0%
46.6%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |