Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 49.7% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 75.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Rossi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
2
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (440)
55.7% (856)
-4.1%
Power Play
35.1% (37)
57.5% (233)
-22.4%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (27)
50.0% (144)
-13.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rossi is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Rossi shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Rossi
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (260)
55.5% (616)
Away
49.2% (244)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Rossi
O'Reilly
P1
53.7%
58.1%
P2
47.6%
54.9%
P3
47.4%
53.9%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
46.0%▼
51.0%
49.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |