Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 46.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Rossi leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 82.0%
18.0%
82.0%
Rossi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Rossi
O'Reilly
Last 10: Rossi 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
1
Rossi
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Rossi
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (2,180)
56.2% (15,290)
-9.4%
Power Play
47.1% (189)
58.7% (3,457)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (44)
51.4% (2,826)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rossi is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,558).
Rossi shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Rossi
O'Reilly
Home
47.8% (1,225)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
45.4% (1,188)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Rossi
O'Reilly
P1
47.1%
55.6%
P2
44.7%
57.0%
P3
48.2%
55.0%
OT
45.8%
62.2%
Final 5 min
44.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
46.0%▼
51.0%
46.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:28 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |