Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 49.7% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 65.2%
Defensive zone
Rossi 80.6%
Neutral zone
Rossi 72.2%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Rossi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Rossi
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Rossi
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Rossi
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (440)
58.7% (858)
-7.1%
Power Play
35.1% (37)
55.8% (285)
-20.7%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (27)
62.9% (35)
-25.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rossi is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Rossi shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Rossi
Hertl
Home
50.0% (260)
60.1% (599)
Away
49.2% (244)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Rossi
Hertl
P1
53.7%
52.4%
P2
47.6%
63.9%
P3
47.4%
58.5%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
46.0%▼
51.0%
49.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |