Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Foligno wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 47.3% vs Monahan 51.2% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 78.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 59.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 71.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Foligno
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Foligno
Monahan
Last 7: Foligno 5-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
0
Foligno
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (553)
51.1% (11,407)
-3.5%
Power Play
56.3% (64)
53.6% (2,582)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
34.2% (76)
45.9% (772)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Foligno is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Foligno shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Foligno
Monahan
Home
46.0% (365)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
47.9% (328)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Foligno
Monahan
P1
48.7%
51.0%
P2
49.8%
51.7%
P3
42.7%
51.0%
OT
36.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
46.1%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
46.9%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |