Mark Jankowski vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.5%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 54.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.5%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Jankowski
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (555)
49.7% (1,038)
+4.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
63.7% (157)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (46)
34.4% (32)
+19.9%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jankowski is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Jankowski shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Jankowski
MacKinnon
Home
53.2% (331)
53.1% (618)
Away
54.2% (284)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Jankowski
MacKinnon
P1
52.7%
49.3%
P2
55.8%
53.0%
P3
52.5%
50.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |