Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 50.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Jankowski
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (555)
55.7% (856)
-2.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
57.5% (233)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (46)
50.0% (144)
+4.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jankowski is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Jankowski shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Home
53.2% (331)
55.5% (616)
Away
54.2% (284)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Jankowski
O'Reilly
P1
52.7%
58.1%
P2
55.8%
54.9%
P3
52.5%
53.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |