Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Larkin
Kastelic
Last 7: Larkin 2-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
4
Larkin
Kastelic
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Larkin
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
60.8% (362)
-9.7%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
83.3% (6)
-23.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
56.2% (146)
-8.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
51.7% (686)
60.3% (242)
Away
53.0% (658)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
52.5%
58.9%
P2
52.7%
57.3%
P3
51.4%
64.0%
OT
61.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
55.7%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |