Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs Domi 50.6% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Domi 80.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 73.2%
Neutral zone
Domi 52.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Kastelic
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kastelic
Domi
Last 5: Kastelic 2-3 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
0
1
Kastelic
Domi
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Domi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Domi
0
1
Kastelic
Domi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
49.8% (297)
+11.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
60.0% (30)
+23.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. Domi is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Domi
Home
60.3% (242)
51.1% (184)
Away
59.2% (272)
50.3% (143)
By Period
Kastelic
Domi
P1
58.9%
45.9%
P2
57.3%
51.8%
P3
64.0%
55.1%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
66.4%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Domi
46.0%▼
51.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:42 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Max Domi |