Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs Paul 53.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 69.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 82.9%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 73.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Kastelic
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
53.7% (354)
+7.1%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
59.0% (61)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
52.9% (34)
+3.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Paul
Home
60.3% (242)
55.1% (216)
Away
59.2% (272)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Kastelic
Paul
P1
58.9%
54.9%
P2
57.3%
54.5%
P3
64.0%
54.3%
OT
53.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
66.4%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |