Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Paul 52.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 67.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Kastelic
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Kastelic
Paul
Last 10: Kastelic 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Kastelic
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kastelic
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
Kastelic
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
52.6% (3,823)
+4.4%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
56.2% (484)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
46.9% (576)
+6.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Paul
Home
58.7% (904)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Kastelic
Paul
P1
58.6%
53.8%
P2
56.5%
51.0%
P3
55.6%
52.2%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nick Paul |