Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.5% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Suzuki 49.4% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 62.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 95.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 74.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Kastelic
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kastelic
Suzuki
Last 8: Kastelic 6-2 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
Kastelic
Suzuki
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
5
0
Kastelic
Suzuki
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
49.4% (6,368)
+7.6%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
50.8% (1,355)
+29.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
44.0% (466)
+9.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Kastelic shoots right. Suzuki is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,221).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Suzuki
Home
58.7% (904)
51.1% (4,031)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
47.7% (4,158)
By Period
Kastelic
Suzuki
P1
58.6%
48.9%
P2
56.5%
49.1%
P3
55.6%
50.3%
OT
53.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |