Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Zacha 49.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 73.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 53.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Kastelic
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Kastelic
Zacha
Last 10: Kastelic 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Kastelic
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
2
Kastelic
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Kastelic
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
48.9% (5,156)
+8.1%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
55.7% (813)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
42.2% (557)
+11.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,560).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Zacha
Home
58.7% (904)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Kastelic
Zacha
P1
58.6%
49.9%
P2
56.5%
49.2%
P3
55.6%
48.2%
OT
53.8%
53.5%
Final 5 min
59.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |