Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Krebs 45.9% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 53.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 87.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 72.3%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Kastelic
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
10
(22 meetings)
12
10
Kastelic
Krebs
Last 10: Kastelic 4-6 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
1
7
Kastelic
Krebs
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
8
1
Kastelic
Krebs
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
2
Kastelic
Krebs
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
46.0% (2,174)
+11.0%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
52.5% (101)
+27.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
38.6% (171)
+15.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Krebs is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (891).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Krebs
Home
58.7% (904)
45.6% (1,199)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
45.8% (1,247)
By Period
Kastelic
Krebs
P1
58.6%
45.9%
P2
56.5%
46.5%
P3
55.6%
44.7%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Krebs
48.0%▲
42.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:51 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:27 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |