Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 66.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs Carrick 54.2% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 50.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 62.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 61.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Kastelic
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
55.5% (470)
+5.3%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
66.7% (3)
+16.6%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
50.0% (58)
+6.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kastelic is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Kastelic shoots right. Carrick is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carrick
Home
60.3% (242)
58.6% (261)
Away
59.2% (272)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Kastelic
Carrick
P1
58.9%
55.9%
P2
57.3%
53.5%
P3
64.0%
55.6%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
66.4%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |