Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Carrick 52.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 50.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 58.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 50.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Kastelic
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Kastelic
Carrick
Last 10: Kastelic 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
3
Kastelic
Carrick
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Kastelic
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
2
Kastelic
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
52.2% (2,544)
+4.8%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
61.3% (75)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
50.8% (435)
+3.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Kastelic shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carrick
Home
58.7% (904)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Kastelic
Carrick
P1
58.6%
51.8%
P2
56.5%
52.3%
P3
55.6%
52.6%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |