Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Steel 50.2% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 58.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 95.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 80.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 81.6%
81.6%
18.4%
Kastelic
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Kastelic
Steel
Last 10: Kastelic 6-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Steel
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Kastelic
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
50.6% (2,876)
+6.4%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
62.6% (179)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
37.4% (254)
+16.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Steel
Home
58.7% (904)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Kastelic
Steel
P1
58.6%
51.9%
P2
56.5%
49.5%
P3
55.6%
49.6%
OT
53.8%
41.9%
Final 5 min
59.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:26 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |