Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs Couturier 53.6% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 51.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 78.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 70.8%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Kastelic
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Kastelic
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
53.9% (792)
+6.9%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
62.9% (70)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
51.3% (234)
+4.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. Couturier is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Couturier
Home
60.3% (242)
51.4% (541)
Away
59.2% (272)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Kastelic
Couturier
P1
58.9%
56.0%
P2
57.3%
52.6%
P3
64.0%
54.3%
OT
53.8%
44.1%
Final 5 min
66.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 02:08 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |