Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.5% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Wright 43.3% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 57.7%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 97.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 92.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 94.1%
94.1%
5.9%
Kastelic
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kastelic
Wright
Last 5: Kastelic 4-1 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Wright
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
42.7% (1,326)
+14.3%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
45.1% (133)
+34.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
33.3% (6)
+20.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Kastelic shoots right. Wright is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Wright
Home
58.7% (904)
44.2% (746)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
41.4% (719)
By Period
Kastelic
Wright
P1
58.6%
44.5%
P2
56.5%
40.5%
P3
55.6%
44.0%
OT
53.8%
20.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:30 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:21 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |