Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs Gourde 46.0% (+14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 59.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 66.2%
Neutral zone
Gourde 56.2%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Kastelic
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kastelic
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Kastelic
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
47.2% (687)
+13.6%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
45.0% (20)
+38.3%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
33.0% (88)
+23.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Gourde
Home
60.3% (242)
44.4% (356)
Away
59.2% (272)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Kastelic
Gourde
P1
58.9%
42.2%
P2
57.3%
50.0%
P3
64.0%
44.5%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
66.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |