Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Gourde 48.2% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 66.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 95.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 85.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Kastelic
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kastelic
Gourde
Last 8: Kastelic 6-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Gourde
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
48.4% (4,987)
+8.6%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
57.4% (376)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
40.0% (555)
+13.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,950).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Gourde
Home
58.7% (904)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Kastelic
Gourde
P1
58.6%
49.8%
P2
56.5%
47.5%
P3
55.6%
47.5%
OT
53.8%
37.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:30 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |