Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Dowd 48.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 90.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 89.6%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 52.7%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Scheifele
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Scheifele
Dowd
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
6
1
Scheifele
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Scheifele
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Scheifele
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
51.0% (671)
-4.5%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
0.0% (2)
+48.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
41.5% (224)
+8.5%
On power play, Scheifele has a +48.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Scheifele shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Dowd
Home
46.6% (605)
48.2% (471)
Away
47.4% (555)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Scheifele
Dowd
P1
52.3%
48.3%
P2
45.3%
46.8%
P3
43.9%
51.0%
OT
27.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |