Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 36 meetings). Scheifele wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 41-41 in 82 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 92.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.2%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Scheifele
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
41
(82 meetings)
41
41
Scheifele
Dowd
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
29
7
Scheifele
Dowd
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
23
Scheifele
Dowd
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
11
Scheifele
Dowd
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,077)
52.3% (6,036)
-6.0%
Power Play
50.2% (2,576)
56.1% (164)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
44.1% (1,638)
-2.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Scheifele is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,390).
Scheifele shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Dowd
Home
48.9% (7,678)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
44.7% (7,574)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Scheifele
Dowd
P1
48.2%
51.5%
P2
45.6%
50.4%
P3
46.8%
50.3%
OT
42.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
45.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:29 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |