Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Scheifele wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Carrick 52.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 88.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 71.6%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 62.1%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Scheifele
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Scheifele
Carrick
Last 10: Scheifele 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
7
2
Scheifele
Carrick
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
9
Scheifele
Carrick
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Scheifele
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,077)
52.2% (2,544)
-5.9%
Power Play
50.2% (2,576)
61.3% (75)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
50.8% (435)
-9.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Scheifele is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,390).
Scheifele shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Carrick
Home
48.9% (7,678)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
44.7% (7,574)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Scheifele
Carrick
P1
48.2%
51.8%
P2
45.6%
52.3%
P3
46.8%
52.6%
OT
42.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:36 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 17:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 13:23 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |