Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 73.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Scheifele
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Scheifele
Hertl
Last 7: Scheifele 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
0
Scheifele
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Scheifele
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
58.7% (858)
-12.2%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
55.8% (285)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Scheifele shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Hertl
Home
46.6% (605)
60.1% (599)
Away
47.4% (555)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Scheifele
Hertl
P1
52.3%
52.4%
P2
45.3%
63.9%
P3
43.9%
58.5%
OT
27.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 18:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |