Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 33 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 73-44 in 117 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 74.7%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 91.1%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 87.3%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Scheifele
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
73
(117 meetings)
44
73
Scheifele
Hertl
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
27
23
Scheifele
Hertl
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
26
Scheifele
Hertl
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
24
Scheifele
Hertl
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,077)
53.9% (8,303)
-7.6%
Power Play
50.2% (2,576)
59.2% (1,995)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
46.3% (806)
-4.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,862).
Scheifele shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Hertl
Home
48.9% (7,678)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.7% (7,574)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Scheifele
Hertl
P1
48.2%
53.6%
P2
45.6%
54.2%
P3
46.8%
55.3%
OT
42.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
45.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 18:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |