Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs Marner 42.5% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 66.9%
Defensive zone
McTavish 56.8%
Neutral zone
McTavish 69.1%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
McTavish
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McTavish
Marner
Last 7: McTavish 4-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
0
McTavish
Marner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
McTavish
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Marner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (618)
40.8% (316)
+6.8%
Power Play
58.3% (103)
40.0% (5)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
25.0% (12)
+8.3%
On power play, McTavish has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McTavish shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
McTavish
Marner
Home
52.2% (391)
36.0% (186)
Away
45.2% (336)
45.6% (147)
By Period
McTavish
Marner
P1
50.2%
40.7%
P2
47.7%
41.0%
P3
49.2%
38.6%
Final 5 min
45.6%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |