Mason McTavish vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.7%
Neutral zone
McTavish 53.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
McTavish
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McTavish
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
McTavish
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (618)
49.7% (1,038)
-2.1%
Power Play
58.3% (103)
63.7% (157)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McTavish shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
McTavish
MacKinnon
Home
52.2% (391)
53.1% (618)
Away
45.2% (336)
49.1% (609)
By Period
McTavish
MacKinnon
P1
50.2%
49.3%
P2
47.7%
53.0%
P3
49.2%
50.7%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |