Mason McTavish vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 54.2%
Defensive zone
McTavish 54.1%
Neutral zone
McTavish 70.4%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
McTavish
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
McTavish
MacKinnon
Last 10: McTavish 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
0
McTavish
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
3
McTavish
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
5
3
McTavish
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,790)
46.1% (11,264)
+2.1%
Power Play
52.8% (436)
53.2% (1,421)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
42.8% (502)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McTavish is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
McTavish shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
McTavish
MacKinnon
Home
49.8% (1,680)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
47.4% (1,581)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
McTavish
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
47.4%
P2
47.7%
46.6%
P3
48.4%
46.1%
OT
43.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
49.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
48.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 19:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |