Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs Kelly 41.4% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 78.0%
Defensive zone
McTavish 56.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 65.2%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
McTavish
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McTavish
Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (618)
36.5% (159)
+11.1%
Power Play
58.3% (103)
0.0% (1)
+58.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
38.5% (13)
-5.2%
On power play, McTavish has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
McTavish shoots left. Kelly is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kelly
Home
52.2% (391)
35.4% (79)
Away
45.2% (336)
37.2% (94)
By Period
McTavish
Kelly
P1
50.2%
33.8%
P2
47.7%
36.5%
P3
49.2%
39.6%
Final 5 min
45.6%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |