Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.9% vs Kelly 41.4% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 51.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 86.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 70.4%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
McTavish
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
McTavish
Kelly
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
2
McTavish
Kelly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
4
McTavish
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
McTavish
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (2,704)
41.6% (722)
+6.8%
Power Play
52.7% (421)
0.0% (3)
+52.7%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
36.5% (170)
-2.2%
On power play, McTavish has a +52.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. McTavish is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,090).
McTavish shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (601).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kelly
Home
50.2% (1,592)
42.2% (457)
Away
47.5% (1,568)
38.6% (438)
By Period
McTavish
Kelly
P1
50.3%
41.5%
P2
48.1%
44.9%
P3
48.4%
35.1%
OT
43.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
34.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▼
51.5%
48.9%
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |