Mathew Barzal vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Barzal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Barzal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Barzal
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
3
Barzal
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
46.1% (11,264)
-4.2%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
53.2% (1,421)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
42.8% (502)
-0.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barzal is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,098).
Barzal shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Barzal
MacKinnon
Home
43.2% (1,901)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Barzal
MacKinnon
P1
40.6%
47.4%
P2
44.6%
46.6%
P3
41.1%
46.1%
OT
27.6%
48.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:25 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 10:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 2 | 12:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 07:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |