Mathew Barzal vs Nathan MacKinnon

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Barzal 42.2% vs MacKinnon 46.7% (-4.7%)
H2H factor MacKinnon leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone MacKinnon 52.8%
Defensive zone MacKinnon 54.1%
Neutral zone MacKinnon 51.6%
Result Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Barzal MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8 - 8 (16 meetings)
8
8
Barzal MacKinnon
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 MacKinnon

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Barzal MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
3
Barzal MacKinnon
8 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Barzal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,558)
46.0% (11,051)
-4.1%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
53.2% (1,394)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
42.9% (499)
-0.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.8% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,094).
Barzal shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,578).
Home / Away
Barzal
MacKinnon
Home
43.1% (1,893)
49.6% (6,342)
Away
40.9% (1,896)
43.9% (6,603)
By Period
Barzal
MacKinnon
P1
40.6%
47.4%
P2
44.4%
46.5%
P3
41.0%
45.9%
OT
27.6%
47.7%
Final 5 min
39.9%
48.9%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%
44.5%
42.0%
MacKinnon
54.0%
54.5%
46.7%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Nov 16, 2025 2 17:34 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 16, 2025 2 17:25 Defensive Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025 2 07:13 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 16, 2025 2 04:32 Neutral Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025 1 19:49 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 16, 2025 1 17:14 Neutral Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025 1 02:44 Defensive Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025 1 00:27 Neutral Mathew Barzal
Oct 14, 2024 2 00:17 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Feb 19, 2020 1 16:22 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Feb 9, 2019 1 10:19 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Dec 31, 2017 3 15:06 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Dec 31, 2017 2 12:30 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Dec 31, 2017 2 05:25 Neutral Mathew Barzal
Nov 5, 2017 3 07:06 Offensive Mathew Barzal
Nov 5, 2017 2 04:24 Neutral Mathew Barzal