Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Dowd 48.6% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 93.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 53.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 69.6%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Barzal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Barzal
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barzal
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barzal
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
51.0% (671)
-10.1%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
0.0% (2)
+34.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
41.5% (224)
-12.9%
On power play, Barzal has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Barzal shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Barzal
Dowd
Home
39.2% (250)
48.2% (471)
Away
41.3% (264)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Barzal
Dowd
P1
46.3%
48.3%
P2
36.7%
46.8%
P3
38.5%
51.0%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |