Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 58.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 67.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Barzal
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barzal
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Barzal
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
45.9% (697)
-5.0%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
47.9% (117)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
48.0% (25)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Barzal shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Barzal
Schmaltz
Home
39.2% (250)
44.9% (434)
Away
41.3% (264)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Barzal
Schmaltz
P1
46.3%
41.5%
P2
36.7%
46.7%
P3
38.5%
51.1%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |