Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.0% vs 42.4%). Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Schmaltz 42.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 60.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 73.6%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Barzal
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Barzal
Schmaltz
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
3
Barzal
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Barzal
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
41.3% (3,431)
+0.6%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
47.3% (655)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
47.4% (135)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Barzal is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,098).
Barzal shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,172).
Home / Away
Barzal
Schmaltz
Home
43.2% (1,901)
42.8% (2,114)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
42.0% (2,107)
By Period
Barzal
Schmaltz
P1
40.6%
41.3%
P2
44.6%
42.8%
P3
41.1%
43.1%
OT
27.6%
42.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 01:12 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 04:58 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 05:55 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 17:30 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 02:51 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |