Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Zacha 51.8% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 71.7%
Defensive zone
Barzal 61.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 64.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Barzal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Barzal
Zacha
Last 8: Barzal 3-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Barzal
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
53.0% (700)
-12.1%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
54.1% (109)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
39.2% (74)
-10.6%
On power play, Zacha has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Barzal
Zacha
Home
39.2% (250)
51.6% (438)
Away
41.3% (264)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Barzal
Zacha
P1
46.3%
57.0%
P2
36.7%
48.9%
P3
38.5%
50.5%
OT
0.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
41.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:45 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |