Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs McLeod 47.4% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 60.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 86.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 75.7%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 71.9%
28.1%
71.9%
Barzal
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Barzal
McLeod
Last 5: Barzal 4-1 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
0
Barzal
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
49.0% (827)
-8.1%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
44.0% (91)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
43.0% (272)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. McLeod is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (415).
Home / Away
Barzal
McLeod
Home
39.2% (250)
48.5% (619)
Away
41.3% (264)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Barzal
McLeod
P1
46.3%
52.7%
P2
36.7%
43.9%
P3
38.5%
45.8%
OT
0.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
41.1%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |