Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs McLeod 49.5% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 57.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 86.1%
Neutral zone
McLeod 78.5%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 76.0%
24.0%
76.0%
Barzal
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Barzal
McLeod
Last 10: Barzal 7-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
1
Barzal
McLeod
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Barzal
McLeod
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
50.4% (3,376)
-8.5%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
50.7% (296)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
44.1% (644)
-1.8%
On even strength, McLeod has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Barzal shoots right. McLeod is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,507).
Home / Away
Barzal
McLeod
Home
43.2% (1,901)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Barzal
McLeod
P1
40.6%
50.8%
P2
44.6%
48.0%
P3
41.1%
50.0%
OT
27.6%
37.1%
Final 5 min
40.0%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |