Mathew Barzal vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 50.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 54.0%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
46.0% (250)
-5.1%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
70.6% (17)
-36.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
31.8% (22)
-3.2%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
39.2% (250)
50.3% (175)
Away
41.3% (264)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
46.3%
48.5%
P2
36.7%
45.9%
P3
38.5%
46.5%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |