Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Kuraly 51.0% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 59.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 91.8%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 74.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Barzal
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Barzal
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
52.6% (464)
-11.7%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
100.0% (1)
-65.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
46.5% (155)
-17.9%
On power play, Kuraly has a +65.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Barzal
Kuraly
Home
39.2% (250)
55.9% (322)
Away
41.3% (264)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Barzal
Kuraly
P1
46.3%
55.9%
P2
36.7%
46.7%
P3
38.5%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |